Writer| MICHAEL J BLAIR
Now the dust is settling on the “final” Brexit document, the landscape is really no clearer than it was before.
Apparently the only person in the UK who thinks it’s the best outcome, is Theresa May. This doesn’t bode well for the vote which will take place in the House of Commons in a couple of weeks.
At this moment, Mrs May is touring round the country talking up her final draft. I suppose she’s trying to get her message over personally to the constituencies of her own MPs, and hope they can pressure them to back her plan. I suppose anything is worth a try at this point.
This is the plan which the EU is saying is the best and only one which the UK is going to get. The very fact that the EU is happy with the outcome of the negotiations, tells its own story.
Let’s look at the opposing forces who aren’t happy with the deal.
Corbyn’s Labour hate the EU and are happy to leave, but they can see the possibility of gaining an early general election by opposing the details of May’s plan. This is obviously chance-taking of the highest order. But it will be interesting to see how this strategy plays out.
Personally, I don’t think, despite the fact that Theresa May and the Conservative party are in turmoil, that a Labour Party led by Corbyn could actually win.
The majority of the public aren’t going to be happy voting for someone who is “friends with terrorists”.
The Liberal Democrats will never accept any kind of leaving the EU, so we can ignore them, just like everyone else does. I can’t even remember who is leading them this week.
May’s own party are remarkably united on the subject. That is, united against her plan, as it’s not nearly radical enough, and really isn’t Brexit. These are the hard line leavers, wanting borders closed, and immigration stopped.
The Prime Minister obviously has her loyal supporters but neither of them were around to be interviewed.
My thinking on the Conservative MPs who don’t agree with the final decision, is that it’s possible a lot of the noise they’re making, is for the benefit of their own constituency, and come the time of the vote in Parliament, they will vote, reluctantly, for the Prime Minister’s decision.
There will be some who never back Mrs May, regardless of what she negotiated, but that’s just the reality.
The DUP (Democratic Unionist Party) Northern Ireland, has been propping up the now minority Conservative Party on crucial votes in Parliament since the last general election, but they aren’t happy with May’s EU exit deal either.
I’m not sure if they can be “bribed” to support the government in the coming vote. But stranger things happen in politics.
Finally, I will come to the SNP.
Although they, also a minority administration, along with support of the Scottish Green Party, govern Scotland, they also have a presence in the UK Parliament.
Their MPs do not do very much at Westminster, other than embarrass Scotland with their juvenile antics and general stupidity.
Led by the corpulent and flatulent Ian Blackford, they show zero respect and we would all be better off if they sat outside and waved flags.
Their main objective is and always has been, independence for Scotland. So it’s no surprise to find them at this time, agitating for a say in the outcome of the Brexit negotiations.
They claim, erroneously, that Scotland voted to stay in the EU. Unfortunately for them, the EU referendum was a UK wide vote. The decision was made in a democratic way and no amount of jumping up and down and whining is going to change the result.
They obviously know this, but because they can see a glimmer of hope that they will somehow wangle another independence referendum out of the chaos of Brexit.
This is wishful thinking on their part.
There is a campaign to have another vote on the EU referendum, called “the people’s vote”. This is quite ridiculous, as I’m fairly certain that “people” did the voting in the original referendum. Not that this piece of common sense makes any difference to them.
They are part of a generation who believe that democracy means that if the result of a vote goes against their beliefs, they can keep rerunning it until they get the decision they want.
The SNP has leapt onto this particular bandwagon with enthusiasm. They don’t really care about a second vote, but they think if they can align with Corbyn’s Labour, and there’s another general election which Labour might win, they might be allowed to hold another independence referendum.
There’s no end to the duplicity of this extremely shallow political party.
Back to the Labour Party camp, where although they don’t really want to stay in the EU, they will oppose whatever they believe will benefit them in the long term.
This is something the SNP don’t seem to have considered.
What if they vote with Labour on this plan, May loses badly and decides to hold a general election, and loses?
This puts Corbyn in 10 Downing Street and the SNP expect him to grant them the holy grail of the second independence referendum, and he doesn’t?
Where do they go from there?
I expect this will be a hammer blow to Mother Sturgeon and Chubby Blackford.
Their hopes dashed, all they will have left is the rout of the next Scottish election.
Finally, whatever happens in the next two weeks very little will change for the average person.
The poor will still be poor. The rich will probably be richer.
The politicians will be paid regardless of their actions and backstabbing ways.
The Labour Party will still be trying to convince us that we will be better off with communism.
The Liberal Democrats will still be an irrelevance.
The Conservatives will still be trying to convince us that they aren’t really nasty.
And finally, the SNP will still be holding onto every grievance and jumping up and down like spoiled teenagers losing their internet privileges.
Keep smiling because it’s only going to get worse!